| Preface
| ix
|
| INTRODUCTION Mind over Data
| 1
|
| A Blueprint of Reality
| 11
|
| CHAPTER 1 The Ladder of Causation
| 23
|
| The Three Levels of Causation
| 27
|
| The Mini-Turing Test
| 36
|
| On Probabilities and Causation
| 47
|
| CHAPTER 2 From Buccaneers to Guinea Pigs: The Genesis of Causal Inference
| 53
|
| Galton and the Abandoned Quest
| 63
|
| Pearson: The Wrath of the Zealot
| 66
|
| Sewall Wright, Guinea Pigs, and Path Diagrams
| 72
|
| E Pur Si Muove (And Yet It Moves)
| 80
|
| From Objectivity to Subjectivity—The Bayesian Connection
| 88
|
| CHAPTER 3 From Evidence to Causes: Reverend Bayes Meets Mr. Holmes
| 93
|
| Bonaparte, the Computer Detective
| 94
|
| Reverend Bayes and the Problem of Inverse Probability
| 95
|
| From Bayes' Rule to Bayesian Networks
| 108
|
| Bayesian Networks: What Causes Say About Data
| 112
|
| Where is My Bag? From Aachen to Zanzibar
| 116
|
| Bayesian Networks in the Real World
| 122
|
| From Bayesian Networks to Causal Diagrams
| 128
|
| CHAPTER 4 Confounding and Deconfounding: Or, Slaying the Lurking Variable
| 135
|
| The Chilling Fear of Confounding
| 141
|
| The Skillful Interrogation of Nature: Why RCTS Work
| 143
|
| The New Paradigm of Confounding
| 150
|
| The Do-Operator and the Back-Door Criterion
| 157
|
| CHAPTER 5 The Smoke-Filled Debate: Clearing the Air
| 167
|
| Tobacco: a Manmade Epidemic
| 170
|
| The Surgeon General's Commission and Hill's Criteria
| 179
|
| Smoking for Newborns
| 183
|
| Passionate Debates: Science vs. Culture
| 186
|
| CHAPTER 6 Paradoxes Galore!
| 189
|
| The Perplexing Monty Hall Problem
| 190
|
| More Collider Bias: Berkson's Paradox
| 197
|
| Simpson's Paradox
| 200
|
| Simpson's Paradox in Pictures
| 211
|
| CHAPTER 7 Beyond Adjustment: The Conquest of Mount Intervention
| 219
|
| The Simplest Route: The Back-Door Adjustment Formula
| 220
|
| The Front-Door Criterion
| 224
|
| The Do-Calculus, or Mind Over Matter
| 231
|
| The Tapestry of Science, or the Hidden Players in the Do-Orchestra
| 242
|
| The Curious Case(s) of Dr. Snow
| 245
|
| Good and Bad Cholesterol
| 252
|
|
|
|
| CHAPTER 8 Counterfactuals: Mining Worlds That Could Have Been
| 259
|
| From Thucydides and Abraham to Hume and Lewis
| 262
|
| Political Outcomes, Structural Equations, and the Algorithmization of Counterfactuals
| 269
|
| The Virtue of Seeing Your Assumptions
| 280
|
| Counterfactuals and the Law
| 286
|
| Necessary Clauses, Sufficient Causes, and Climate Change
| 291
|
| A World of Counterfactuals
| 296
|
| CHAPTER 9 Mediation: The Search for a Mechanism
| 299
|
| Scurvy, the Wrong Mediator
| 302
|
| Nature versus Nurture: The Tragedy of Barbara Burks
| 304
|
| In Search of a Language (The Berkeley Admissions Paradox)
| 309
|
| Daisy, the Kittens and Indirect Effects
| 317
|
| Mediation in Linear Wonderland
| 322
|
| Embrace the "Would-Haves"
| 329
|
| Case Studies of Mediation
| 336
|
| The Smoking Gene: Mediation and Interaction
| 339
|
| Tourniquets: A Hidden Fallacy
| 343
|
| CHAPTER 10 Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, and the Big Questions
| 349
|
| Causal Models and "Big Data"
| 350
|
| Strong AI and Free Will
| 358
|
| Acknowledgments
| 371
|
| Notes
| 373
|
| Bibliography
| 377
|
| Index
| 405
|
